I’m going to lead a virtual discussion tomorrow (Sunday, 16 Aug, 11 AM) as part of the TIFR Chai and Why series titled: “Asking questions about mathematical models”. I promise to keep the discussion very simple. So if you have been reading (or writing) about these models, it may be of interest. Here is a more detailed abstract. Please come if you can and spread the word to others who might be interested.
The past few months have seen the emergence of numerous mathematical models, accompanied by claims from the models’ originators to have uncovered key insights about the COVID-19 pandemic. But in several cases, models with obvious flaws have received wide publicity. I will discuss, among other examples, early model-based claims that a “49 day lockdown” was necessary in India, and later claims that the Indian lockdown “averted thousands of deaths”. These are textbook examples of poor science, but they also show how governments and others with an agenda can use scientific-sounding claims to mislead people. I will conclude by arguing that mathematical models can be useful tools, but they cannot be treated as black boxes: we must carefully examine the assumptions and methodology of each individual model before we take its conclusions seriously.
16 August 2020, 11:00 AM