If you are around today at 7 pm, please come for this discussion hosted by BSS Karnataka. We will discuss the public discourse around mathematical models that have been used for the pandemic in India. The talk will be livestreamed at:
https://www.facebook.com/bss.karnataka
(unfortunately, there is no public Zoom link).
Here is the abstract.
The past year has seen the emergence of numerous mathematical models for the COVID-19 pandemic whose results have been publicized as scientific predictions for the future. In several cases, models with obvious flaws have received wide publicity, and may have influenced policy. I will discuss, among other examples, early model-based claims that a “49 day lockdown” was necessary in India, and subsequent claims that the Indian lockdown “averted thousands of deaths”. I will also discuss the incorrect conclusion, supported by modelling, that India would not see a second wave at all. The program of attempting to make detailed predictions about the pandemic using simple mathematical equations provides a textbook example of poor science. But it also shows how governments and others with an agenda can use scientific-sounding claims to mislead people.
